As an Irish News subscriber, we gave you the chance to pick the brains of our columnist Alex Kane.
He thanks you for your questions and offers the following answers.
In the event of a majority voting in favour of a united Ireland in a future referendum, would you accept the result? Secondly, would you encourage other unionists to do likewise and perhaps even work with others towards the creation of a new Ireland?
Answer: Yes, I would accept the result. It would be a difficult day for me, obviously, because it would mean a very significant change for me in terms of my citizenship and constitutional status. But when I campaigned for and voted for the Good Friday Agreement in the 1998 referendum I did so knowing that there would likely come a moment—not in my own lifetime perhaps—when the conditions required for a border poll would be met and that the pro-UK side might find itself on the losing side of the subsequent poll.
All of which explains why I’ve argued since 1998—many times through Irish News columns—that a) unionists should be prepared for the possibility; b) there should be a thought-through gameplan before the poll is called and c) the precise terms and conditions for such a poll should be set out sooner rather than later.
There was a time when I thought I would leave and live outside Ireland if Northern Ireland ceased to exist as part of the UK. I didn’t believe that it would be possible for unionism—or the remnants of it—to be accommodated in a new united Ireland. But I changed my mind about leaving. It would be a churlish thing to do as a consequence of losing a democratic vote. So I would stay and continue to write and talk and make a case for the best possible resolution. And yes, I would persuade my pro-union community to play a part and accept a role in the new set-up.
Do you think the current Executive & Assembly will improve things for the people of Northern Ireland or just retreat to their usual traditional opposing views? Joe Murphy, Warrenpoint, Co Down
Answer: The ongoing difficulty with the Northern Ireland institutions is that they continue to reflect the constitutional divisions. After 25 years of being involved in the Assembly (I was based there from 1999-2010) and observing it as a columnist/commentator my instinct has always been that the overwhelming majority of MLAs really do want to provide good government. They do want better schools, health provision, housing, infrastructure, efficiency etc. But when push comes to shove they still, like the political equivalent of moths, fly to their own candles. All of which leaves us in a perpetual dilemma: yes, they want good government; but they don’t seem to want to do it together. Good government requires collectively agreed government, an agreed Programme for Government and an end to the silo mentality. I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
What do you think Stormont can actually deliver for the people in 2025?
Answer: I don’t know. The first Executive was established in December 1999 and collapsed a few months later. Since then we have had a non-stop cycle of up and then down again government. And even when there was something resembling stability—between 2007 and 2015—one internal crisis followed another; the executive didn’t meet for months on end; the British, Irish and US governments were on standby to sort us out and at one point ministers were initiating legal action against each other. Delivery, which every party talks about, requires both trust and stability. Both remain in very short supply.
With your experience in political communications, do you believe manifestos or party policies matter in Northern Ireland elections?
Answer: Generally speaking manifestoes tend to be pored over by experts, analysts, pressure groups and political opponents. Parties don’t even send out the full manifesto to voters—although you can track it down if you are so inclined. Which most people aren’t. In Northern Ireland 90% of those who will vote—which still hovers around high 50s-low 60s have already made up their mind. Nationalists will choose between Sinn Fein and SDLP. Unionists have DUP, UUP and TUV. And Alliance opt for a supposed middle ground. Let’s be honest: how many voters actually weigh up the socio/economic values of the manifestoes of parties which don’t support their personal opinion on the constitutional issue.
What are your thoughts on the severely delayed process of appointing a new Victims Commissioner? Anon, Belfast
Answer: I’m not surprised by the delay. It seems to go with the territory of all sorts of appointments. But there is also a bigger issue to be considered re: legacy. I don’t think Northern Ireland is in what can genuinely be described as a post-conflict situation. At best it is conflict stalemate. And in that sort of situation truth is the main casualty. Governments and paramilitaries are very uncomfortable with the truth: preferring to promote a narrative that suggests we just need to accept that bad things were done and we need to move on. But how do you move on if: a) You have pick and mix narratives; b) it suits all sides to keep the truth under wraps and c) there are tens upon tens of thousands of people who still live with pain and uncertainty. Hiding the truth is the surest way of preventing trust and cooperation at the centre of government.
Who would you regard as a political hero?
Answer: From my perspective as a unionist it would be a tie between Brian Faulkner and David Trimble. They both came from the right of politics, but both realised that change was required if the union was to survive; and that political/electoral unionism had to be seen to lead that change. They took huge risks and were destroyed by their parties. And while I think that he never really understood or cared all that much for unionists or unionism I still believe John Hume also took huge risks to get the deal we have now.
Do you believe the ‘Alliance surge’ has ended?
Answer: It was a difficult general election for Alliance. They had their tails up at the prospect of winning three seats — maybe even four – but ended with one, Lagan Valley, which still has an overall unionist majority. The biggest problem for Alliance — and it will get bigger as the shadow of a border poll grows — is how they continue to avoid a one way or the other stand on the constitutional issue.
♦ Our columnist Tom Kelly has previously taken part in an exclusive Q&A for subscribers - here’s how it went.
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